Oscars 2005: Predictions & Commentary
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[Commentary made after the 2005 Oscars]
For the first time in four years, I'll be home for every minute of the Academy Awards. I was thinking
about going to the local Oscar party, but I've been battling a persistant sinus infection lately and will
just stay home. Last year I was in Hollywood itself for the Oscars, which was a once-in-a-lifetime trip.
I felt last year was a good but not a great year for films. There were the very controversial
films, like Farenheit 911 and Passion of the Christ, and the interesting
like Eternal Sunsine and Kinsey, both of which were pretty much ignored
by Oscar.
[[The show itself was OK - good, but not great. Chris Rock did a mostly good job, but he really went after the bad movie taste of inner city blacks - if a white host had done that, he would have gotten slammed for racism. Presenting some of the nominees onstage worked better than I expected, but giving out some of the awards from the audience just did not work at all. Beyonce was way, way overused. Her French accent sounded oddly Spanish. Having Yo-Yo Ma play during the "In Memoriam" segment was very nice. I have some further comments on shortening the Oscar show.]]
I've seen most of the major movies, will note what I haven't seen and
will go ahead with my predictions anyway. For the last few years, I've
been hedging my bets with a "will win" (WW) & "should win" (SW).
[[Prediction percentage for 2005 42%]]
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
- Don Cheadle in Hotel Rwanda (United Artists in association with Lions Gate Entertainment through MGM Distribution Co.)
- Johnny Depp in Finding Neverland (Miramax)
- Leonardo DiCaprio in The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
- Clint Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros.)
- WON (SW, WW) Jamie Foxx in Ray (Universal)
There are few locks this year, and I do think one of them is Jamie Foxx. I should say, I haven't yet
seen Ray, but I've bought the DVD and will watch it tonight. Both Depp and DiCaprio gave
very good, nuanced performances in their flicks, and my family was impressed by Eastwood. [[Jamie Foxx's performance was terrific!]]
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
- Alan Alda in The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
- Thomas Haden Church in Sideways (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox)
- Jamie Foxx in Collateral (DreamWorks & Paramount)
- WON (SW, WW) Morgan Freeman in Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros.)
- Clive Owen in Closer (Sony Pictures Releasing)
This is a tricky category. Thomas Haden Church is about the least likely person most of us would have
expected to see on this list, before we saw Sideways, in which he was quite good. Alda and Owen
turned in serpentine performances. But I do suspect Morgan Freeman will get his award
for lifetime achievement. [[!!]]
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
- (SW) Annette Bening in Being Julia (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Catalina Sandino Moreno in Maria Full of Grace (HBO Films in association with Fine Line Features)
- Imelda Staunton in Vera Drake (Fine Line Features, Alain Sarde & UK Film Council in association with Inside Track Films)
- WON (WW) Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros.)
- Kate Winslet in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Focus Features)
Since people complained about the lack of surprises last year (though, sorry folks, seeing an epic
fantasy film sweep the awards was quite a surprise), this could be the surprise category this year.
Many people, and I'm among them, felt Annette Benning deserved the Oscar for her astonishing work
in American Beauty, but was swept up in the Hilary Swank juggernaut. Also, Swank is still
extremely young - should she already have two Oscars? So I'd really like to see Benning win this year, though I suspect it'll be Swank.
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
- WON (SW, WW) Cate Blanchett in The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
- Laura Linney in Kinsey (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox)
- Virginia Madsen in Sideways (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox)
- Sophie Okonedo in Hotel Rwanda (United Artists in association with Lions Gate Entertainment through MGM Distribution Co.)
- Natalie Portman in Closer (Sony Pictures Releasing)
OK, so maybe there are two locks this year. I loved Laura Linney and Virginia Masden's performances
this year, but Blanchett really sparkled.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
- WON (SW, WW) The Incredibles (Buena Vista ) Brad Bird
- Shark Tale (DreamWorks) Bill Damaschke
- Shrek 2 (DreamWorks) Andrew Adamson
While I didn't find The Incredibles as entertaining as Shrek 2, I admired its design
and voice casting. Since Shrek did win this award a few years back, The Incredibles
will probably take this award.
Achievement in Art Direction
- WON (WW) The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti
Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
- (SW) Finding Neverland (Miramax)
Art Direction: Gemma Jackson
Set Decoration: Trisha Edwards
- Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events (Paramount & DreamWorks)
Art Direction: Rick Heinrichs
Set Decoration: Cheryl Carasik
- The Phantom of the Opera (Warner Bros.)
Art Direction: Anthony Pratt
Set Decoration: Celia Bobak
- A Very Long Engagement (Warner Independent Pictures)
Art Direction: Aline Bonetto
This is a tricky category (though what the hell was the hopelessly overdone Phantom
doing with an Oscar nomination?). Lemony Snicket certainly used its art direction to go
in several unique directions, but I'm not completely sure it worked. I'd rather see
Finding Neverland win because it was subtle where it needed to be, rather than
constantly hitting the viewer over the head. I suspect that The Aviator will take most
technical awards, however. [[No surprise here!]]
Achievement in Cinematography
- WON (WW) The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
Robert Richardson
- House of Flying Daggers (Sony Pictures Classics)
Zhao Xiaoding
- The Passion of the Christ (Icon & Newmarket)
Caleb Deschanel
- The Phantom of the Opera (Warner Bros.)
John Mathieson
- (SW) A Very Long Engagement (Warner Independent Pictures)
Bruno Delbonnel
I didn't see A Very Long Engagement, but the American Society of Cinemetographers gave it
its best cinemetography award this year. This might be an award Passion of the Christ could
win. The cinemetography for The Aviator was good, but lacked the "wow" factor great movie
cinemetography should give you. However, it might win anyway.
Achievement in Costume Design
- (SW, WW) The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
Sandy Powell
- Finding Neverland (Miramax)
Alexandra Byrne
- WON Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events (Paramount & DreamWorks)
Colleen Atwood
- Ray (Universal)
Sharen Davis
- Troy (Warner Bros.)
Bob Ringwood
This may be close to a lock - the recreation of '30s and '40s fashions in The Aviator was
spot-on.
Achievement in Directing
- (SW) The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
Martin Scorsese
- WON (WW) Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros.) Clint Eastwood
- Ray (Universal) Taylor Hackford
- Sideways (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox) Alexander Payne
- Vera Drake (Fine Line Features, Alain Sarde & UK Film Council in association with Inside Track Films) Mike Leigh
This is probably the hardest category this year. Clint Eastwood has directed some fine movies, and
did win an Oscar for The Unforgiven. Martin Scorsese has also directed some fine movies, and
still has yet to win an Oscar. Ditto Mike Leigh (though Vera Drake is probably too controversial
to win anything). I think there's at least a chance that Eastwood and Scorsese could split the vote
and that Alexander Payne could sneak in and win. That's certainly happened before - I suspect just
two years ago, Marshall and Scorsese split the vote, allowing the completely unexpected Polanski
win. Conventional wisdom says it will be Eastwood, but I wouldn't count Scorsese (or even Payne) completely out.
Best Documentary Feature
- WON (SW, WW) Born into Brothels (THINKFilm)
A Red Light Films, Inc. Production
Ross Kauffman & Zana Briski
- The Story of the Weeping Camel (THINKFilm)
A Hochschule für Fernsehen und Film München Production
Luigi Falorni & Byambasuren Davaa
- Super Size Me (Roadside Attractions/Samuel Goldwyn Films)
A Kathbur Productions/The Con Production
Morgan Spurlock
- Tupac: Resurrection (Paramount )
An MTV - Amaru Entertainment, Inc. Production
Lauren Lazin & Karolyn Ali
- Twist of Faith
A Chain Camera Pictures Production
Kirby Dick & Eddie Schmidt
Born into Brothels has been the big rave documentary of this year, though I've
heard some buzz for The Story of the Weeping Camel.
Best Documentary Short Subject
- (SW, WW) Autism Is a World
A State of the Art Production
Gerardine Wurzburg
- The Children of Leningradsky
A Hanna Polak Production
Hanna Polak & Andrzej Celinski
- Hardwood
A Hardwood Pictures & National Film Board of Canada Production
Hubert Davis & Erin Faith Young
- WON Mighty Times: The Children's March
A Tell the Truth Pictures Production
Robert Hudson & Bobby Houston
- Sister Rose's Passion
A New Jersey Studios Production
Oren Jacoby & Steve Kalafer
I suspect Autism Is a World will win, but for something of an odd reason -
there's been a huge push across media to make people more aware about
autism. As a result, I think it'll be on people's minds and might spurr voters
to vote for this short subject. [[Well, I was wrong here!]]
Achievement in Film Editing
- WON (WW) The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
Thelma Schoonmaker
- Collateral (DreamWorks & Paramount )
Jim Miller & Paul Rubell
- (SW) Finding Neverland (Miramax)
Matt Chesse
- Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros.)
Joel Cox
- Ray (Universal)
Paul Hirsch
For about 3/4ths of the movie, the editing in The Aviator is really very good. But when it failed,
it failed really badly (during that overly-long "Hughes is crazy" segment). The editing in Finding Neverland felt just right, but it might go to Baby or maybe even Ray anyway (I haven't
seen Ray yet, and plan to watch it tonight). [[Oh well...]]
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
- As It Is in Heaven
A GF Studios Production
Sweden
- The Chorus (Les Choristes)
A Galatée Films/Pathé Renn/France 2 Cinema/Novo Arturo Films/Vega Film AG Production
France
- Downfall
A Constantin Film Production
Germany
- WON (SW, WW) The Sea Inside
A Sogecine & Himenóptero Production
Spain
- Yesterday
A Videovision Entertainment Production
South Africa
This is between The Sea Inside and The Chorus, but, based on Bardem's acclaimed performance in The Sea Inside, I think that will win.
Achievement in Makeup
- WON Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
(Paramount & DreamWorks)
Valli O'Reilly & Bill Corso
- The Passion of the Christ
(Icon & Newmarket )
Keith Vanderlaan & Christien Tinsley
- (SW, WW) The Sea Inside
(Fine Line Features & Sogepaq)
Jo Allen & Manuel García
A somewhat tricky category, but this might be something Passion of the Christ could win.
However, sometimes subtlty takes the day for Best Makeup, in which case The Sea Inside
would be the winner. [[Well, I was wrong here, but the make-up was certainly interesting for
Lemony Snicket.]]
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
- WON Finding Neverland (Miramax) Jan A. P. Kaczmarek
- (SW, WW) Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban (Warner Bros.) John Williams
- Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events (Paramount & DreamWorks) Thomas Newman
- The Passion of the Christ (Icon & Newmarket ) John Debney
- The Village (Buena Vista ) James Newton Howard
I found the music pretty unmemorable this year, though John Williams work for Harry Potter was
pretty good. [[But Finding Neverland's award was unexpected and delightful!]]
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
- (SW, WW) "Accidentally In Love" from Shrek 2 (DreamWorks)
Music by Adam Duritz, Charles Gillingham, Jim Bogios, David Immergluck, Matthew Malley & David Bryson Lyric by Adam Duritz & Daniel Vickrey
- WON "Al Otro Lado Del Río" from The Motorcycle Diaries (Focus Features & Film Four)
Music & Lyric by Jorge Drexler
- "Believe" from The Polar Express (Warner Bros.)
Music & Lyric by Glen Ballard & Alan Silvestri
- "Learn To Be Lonely" from The Phantom of the Opera (Warner Bros.)
Music by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Lyric by Charles Hart
- "Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" from The Chorus (Les Choristes) (Miramax)
Music by Bruno Coulais
Lyric by Christophe Barratier
The songs weren't great either, but I did like "Accidentally In Love." [[I really enjoyed the performances
by Antonio Bandares and Carlos Santana at the Oscars.]]
Best Motion Picture of the Year
- (SW) The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
A Forward Pass/Appian Way /IMF Production
Michael Mann & Graham King, Producers
- Finding Neverland (Miramax)
A FilmColony Production
Richard N. Gladstein & Nellie Bellflower, Producers
- WON (WW) Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros.)
A Warner Bros. Pictures Production
Clint Eastwood, Albert S. Ruddy & Tom Rosenberg, Producers
- Ray (Universal)
A Universal Pictures/Bristol Bay Production
Taylor Hackford, Stuart Benjamin, Howard Baldwin, Producers
- Sideways (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox)
A Sideways Productions, Inc. Production
Michael London, Producer
Decisions, decisions...ultimately, this may be a split picture/director year, with
The Aviator taking Best Picure and Million Dollar Baby taking best director.
While Return of the King had some flaws, The Aviator's flaws were more glaring.
In some way, I liked Finding Neverland best of the five (though I haven't seen Ray
yet and I didn't want to see Million Dollar Baby since I don't like boxing movies), and
Sideways had a few scenes of surprising brilliance (the Giamati-Masden wine discussion
scene) for such a little movie. [*SIGH*]
Best Animated Short Film
- Birthday Boy An Australian Film, TV & Radio School Production
Sejong Park & Andrew Gregory
- Gopher Broke
A Blur Studio Production
Jeff Fowler & Tim Miller
- Guard Dog
A Bill Plympton Production
Bill Plympton
- Lorenzo
A Walt Disney Pictures Production
Mike Gabriel & Baker Bloodworth
- WON (SW, WW) Ryan
A Copper Heart Entertainment & National Film Board of Canada Production
Chris Landreth
I usually like to make a guess based on seeing a picture from the cartoon. But, when in
doubt, go with the animation from the National Film Board of Canada.
Best Live Action Short Film
- Everything in This Country Must
A Six Mile LLC Production
Gary McKendry
- Little Terrorist
An Alipur Films Production
Ashvin Kumar
- 7:35 in the Morning (7:35 de la Mañana)
An Ibarretxe & Co. Production
Nacho Vigalondo
- (SW, WW) Two Cars, One Night
A Defender Films Limited Production
Taika Waititi & Ainsley Gardiner
- WON Wasp
A Cowboy Films Production
Andrea Arnold
No idea here.
Achievement in Sound Editing
- WON The Incredibles (Buena Vista ) Michael Silvers & Randy Thom
- The Polar Express (Warner Bros.) Randy Thom & Dennis Leonard
- (SW, WW) Spider-Man 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing) Paul N. J. Ottosson
Achievement in Sound Mixing
- (SW, WW) The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
Tom Fleischman & Petur Hliddal
- The Incredibles (Buena Vista )
Randy Thom, Gary A. Rizzo & Doc Kane
- The Polar Express (Warner Bros.)
Randy Thom, Tom Johnson, Dennis Sands & William B. Kaplan
- WON Ray (Universal)
Scott Millan, Greg Orloff, Bob Beemer & Steve Cantamessa
- Spider-Man 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Jeffrey J. Haboush & Joseph Geisinger
[[I finally saw Ray the day before the nominations, so I'm not unhappy at
all by this award.]]
Achievement in Visual Effects
- Harry Potter & the Prisoner of Azkaban (Warner Bros.)
Roger Guyett, Tim Burke, John Richardson & Bill George
- I, Robot (20th Century Fox)
John Nelson, Andrew R. Jones, Erik Nash & Joe Letteri
- WON (SW, WW) Spider-Man 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing) John Dykstra, Scott Stokdyk, Anthony LaMolinara & John Frazier
For the first time in three years, this award won't go to New Zealand! The effects in
Spider-Man 2 were quite spectacular, especially Doc Oc.
Adapted Screenplay
- Before Sunset (Warner Independent Pictures)
Screenplay by Richard Linklater & Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke
Story by Richard Linklater & Kim Krizan
- Finding Neverland (Miramax)
Screenplay by David Magee
- Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros.)
Screenplay by Paul Haggis
- The Motorcycle Diaries (Focus Features & Film Four)
Screenplay by José Rivera
- WON (SW, WW) Sideways (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox)
Screenplay by Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor
Sideways has to win something, and I think this will be the award.
Original Screenplay
- The Aviator (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group & Warner Bros.)
Written by John Logan
- WON (SW, WW) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Focus Features)
Screenplay by Charlie Kaufman
Story by Charlie Kaufman & Michel Gondry & Pierre Bismuth
- Hotel Rwanda (United Artists in association with Lions Gate Entertainment through MGM Distribution Co.)
Written by Keir Pearson & Terry George
- The Incredibles (Buena Vista )
Written by Brad Bird
- Vera Drake (Fine Line Features, Alain Sarde & UK Film Council in association with Inside Track Films)
Written by Mike Leigh
Eternal Sunshine also has to win somthing, so this will be it.
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